🎧 Elon vs Sam Altman: The $134 Billion Lawsuit Could End OpenAI

👤 Sam Altman · EN 8,614w · KR 5,197w

사용법 (30초)
1️⃣ 영문 or 한국어 복사 버튼 터치
2️⃣ 🔗 링크 복사 → Chrome에 붙여넣기 → 열기
3️⃣ + 새 노트북 → 소스 추가 → 붙여넣기
4️⃣ 🎧 Audio Overview → Generate
5️⃣ 차에서 재생 🚗

원문 미리보기 8,614w

Josh: So everyone knows how messy breakups get when there's money involved. Josh: Now imagine that breakup is between two of the most powerful people in tech. Josh: There's $134 billion at stake and someone's personal diary just became court evidence. Josh: This is Elon versus OpenAI, the saga that just keeps continuing to escalate. Josh: And I guess maybe we'll start with the quick version where Elon co-founded OpenAI Josh: in 2015 with a $38 million donation, thinking they were building a nonprofit Josh: to save humanity from big tech AI monopolies, Josh: Google. Flash forward to today, OpenAI is now worth half a trillion dollars, Josh: partnered with Microsoft, about to go public, and Elon is saying, hey, I got played. Josh: The receipts dropped. We have Greg Brockman, who's OpenAI's president. Josh: He had journal entries from 2017. Josh: We're going to get into it. It was really fascinating. And Greg posted a rebuttal. Josh: The drama is kind of starting to get out of control. And there's a lot of new Josh: updates this week that we're going to dive into. So grab your popcorn and let's get into this. Ejaaz: Yeah. Okay. So let's start off with the drama between these two. Ejaaz: By the way, I have to acknowledge I'm reporting from the Batcave today, Josh. Josh: It's a little dark over there. So you're going to have to deal with me being. Ejaaz: A bit of a silhouette. Yeah, yeah. Josh is on the West Coast for listeners here, Ejaaz: and I'm on the East Coast right now. So it's past sunset. Ejaaz: It's past my sunset over here. So let's jump straight into it. Ejaaz: Elon has sued many companies and many founders in his time. Ejaaz: But his favorite and most judicious lawsuit has been to open air. Who have wronged him? Ejaaz: Josh. He initially invested $38 million or rather donated $38 million to what Ejaaz: was then a non-profit OpenAI committed to building AI for the open source good Ejaaz: so that it wouldn't get into the hands of evil. Ejaaz: Fast forward to today and obviously OpenAI's structure has changed into something Ejaaz: that could kind of loosely definitely be categorized as a for-profit. Ejaaz: And so the lawsuit's been going kind of back and forth for a while, Ejaaz: but it kind of culminated over the last two months. Ejaaz: To give you the quick headlines, at the end of last year, Ejaaz: the judge refused Sam Altman's request to dismiss the case completely, Ejaaz: saying that Elon had sufficient evidence and that it was going to go to trial, Ejaaz: which is now going to happen in April of this year. Ejaaz: But Elon stepped up the gas over the last week and said that he's coming for it all. Ejaaz: He's coming for what his original $38 million donation would be in today's OpenAI's Ejaaz: valuation. Do you want to guess what that number is, Josh? Josh: Some astronomical amount. I mean, this has to be big. Ejaaz: It is $137 billion. Ejaaz: He's requesting, he's going for the neck, basically. Oh, rather, $134 billion. My bad. Ejaaz: So here are the key details. Musk's expert lawyer, he goes by the name of Paul Ejaaz: Wazin, values the damages between $79 to $134 billion based on his original $38 million donation. Ejaaz: So the question that becomes, well, what's really changed? Why has Moss got Ejaaz: like the upper hand now? And it's just something that you alluded to earlier, which is, Ejaaz: Greg Brockman, the acting president of OpenAI, Josh: We got your diary, bro. Ejaaz: Kept a diary of the entire sequence of events or history of OpenAI up until Ejaaz: this day, which he had to legally give to the court for review. Josh: Oh, that's so vile. And Josh, could you imagine your personal diary? Ejaaz: Dude, also, why? It is like a 16-year-old girl's diary. Ejaaz: And by that, I mean he has documented everything down to the line of whether Ejaaz: he thinks it's morally ethical to do what he was doing back then. Ejaaz: So to give you an idea, look at this quote, Josh. Ejaaz: Look at this tweet right here. He goes, it'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him. Ejaaz: Him he's referring to as Elon. To convert to a B Corp without him. Ejaaz: That'd be pretty morally bankrupt. Ejaaz: And he's not an idiot. Ejaaz: And then he goes on to say, I cannot say that we are committed to the nonprofit. Ejaaz: Don't want to say that we're committed if three months later we're Ejaaz: doing the b call then it was a lie not feeling Ejaaz: so great about all of this the true answer is that we want Ejaaz: musk out can't see this turning into a for-profit without a very nasty fight Ejaaz: so the long story short is elon is suing very aggressively for what his original Ejaaz: donation is in an equity stake in the open ai is today to the tune of $134 billion. Ejaaz: And he has pretty much a smoking gun, Josh. Ejaaz: But there was a rebuttal from Greg Brockman himself saying that Elon Musk had Ejaaz: let some important context or left some important context out of his claim. Ejaaz: And I'm showing this on the screen right here where, you Ejaaz: We've got to figure out how we transition from a non-profit to something which Ejaaz: is essentially a philanthropic endeavor. Ejaaz: So what you're seeing in blue on the screen here is what Elon has claimed and caught. Ejaaz: He's saying, hey, I've always kept my notion that I wanted OpenAI to become Ejaaz: a philanthropic endeavor, but he left out what was in red, which is him saying, Ejaaz: I know that we need to transform this into a B Corp or a C Corp. Ejaaz: So there's a bit of inambiguity and games being played from Elon. Ejaaz: Which side do you take on this? Josh: I'm trying to look at this and evaluate this as neutral as possible. Josh: And one party, we're seeing the journal entries, which one, I have a lot of Josh: questions how they got that journal or the diary, and they knew that it even existed. Josh: Because that seems like a very personal thing you wouldn't really want to tell Josh: people about. So how the lawyers, one, discovered it existed, Josh: and then two, got access to it. Josh: I'm sure there's some funny stuff going on behind the scenes of this case, Josh: just to kind of provide more evidence. Josh: But in terms of the evidence that's been provided, so far, you have one party Josh: who is like, hey, we don't actually want this person to be at the company. Josh: I think we just want to remove him. Josh: But I kind of am siding with Elon in this instance for now, because it's very Josh: clear that they wanted out. Josh: And even though it's clear that Elon observed it was probably necessary to become Josh: a B Corp, he still was ousted. Josh: And in the case that it became a B Corp, he still does rightfully own those shares of equity. Josh: So I guess for now, I'm team Elon. But more than anything, I'm team drama, man. Josh: This is great content. And we're going to continue to follow this as we go through Josh: this court case, because I'm sure this is just the tip of the iceberg. Ejaaz: Dude, I saw a hilarious tweet earlier this week, which said that, Ejaaz: My thesis for Anthropik winning the AI race is simply because they have zero drama. Josh: No, seriously. Ejaaz: All six co-founders are still there. No one's left. They've had the lowest employee Ejaaz: attrition of any of the major AI labs. Ejaaz: They've just kind of got their crap together. And OpenAIR is the complete opposite. Ejaaz: It's an absolute wrecking ball, as we're going to find out on other things later this episode. Ejaaz: The final thing I'll make on Ejaaz: this point is the OpenAIR and Microsoft partnership. Josh, if Elon ends up Ejaaz: able, like, if Elon ends up getting $134 billion, that dissolves the Microsoft Ejaaz: OpenAI relationship completely. Ejaaz: Because that is the equivalent of Microsoft's stake in OpenAI as well. Ejaaz: So Elon's forcing hand basically gets ahead of him. Like Satya doesn't have Ejaaz: the power that he originally thought he had. Josh: And now poor Microsoft is just caught up into this, even though they had nothing Josh: to do with the inception of the company, and they weren't involved until much later. Josh: And I think the reason why this matters beyond the drama even is because Because Josh: a lot of people believe that if Elon wins, I mean, it could fundamentally challenge Josh: how AI companies are valued. Josh: And some people are kind of whispering about whether this trial could be a catalyst Josh: that could impact the actual AI bubble that we've been building. Josh: If you can remove almost like $150 billion out of that and move it into another Josh: entity, that's a huge swing. Josh: I'm not sure if the market's going to be able to handle that because OpenAI Josh: has so many obligations to make money and pay people back. And I guess on that Josh: note, maybe we can get into one of the new things that they rolled out in order Josh: to generate some revenue this week, which is their new ad model. Josh: And Ijaz, if you remember, just last year, I guess two years technically now Josh: because we're in 2026, but in 2024, Sam was on stage and he said, Josh: ads are kind of the last resort. Josh: We don't really like the ad model. We don't believe in it. We don't need it. Flash forward to today. Josh: There are ads rolling out in OpenAI. So let's read. We'll start by reading what Josh: they announced, which says, in the coming weeks, we plan to start testing ads Josh: in ChatGPT free and go tiers. Josh: We're sharing our principles early on on how we'll approach ads guided by putting Josh: users in trust transparency first as we work to make AI accessible to everyone. Josh: So they have like these four principles that they outlined. Josh: What matters most? Responses in ChatGPT will not be influenced by ads. Josh: Ads are always separated and clearly labeled. your conversations are private Josh: from advertisers pro plus business and enterprise tiers will not have ads you Josh: just what do you think about this. Ejaaz: Okay, I have many thoughts. Okay, so let me give you a kind of lay of the land. Ejaaz: OpenAI today has roughly 800 million weekly active users. Ejaaz: Josh, guess what percentage of those users pay for their subscription? Josh: I know this because we mentioned this in a previous episode. Josh: It is close to single-digit percent. It's very low, surprisingly low. Ejaaz: It is 5%. Yeah, that's not high. So the lesson that we've learned from this Ejaaz: is you could have subscriptions, but it's not enough to keep you afloat. Ejaaz: OpenAI is projected to blow $20 billion this year alone. Ejaaz: You need something else to pay for it. So you need to somehow monetize the free users. Ejaaz: And the classic model that everyone's used for decades now is ads. Ejaaz: So they're turning it on for two specific tiers. Ejaaz: The free users who are paying nothing to get access to ChatGPT. Ejaaz: And this new tier, which launched at the same time that they announced ads, Ejaaz: Josh, called ChatGPT Go. Ejaaz: Where it's a subscription where you pay $8 a month and you get access to not Ejaaz: the best ChatGPT models, but, you know, just below the best. Ejaaz: So let's look at some of the napkin math here. Ejaaz: There's roughly 600 million non-paying weekly users or monthly users for ChatGPT. Right. Ejaaz: Each of them were to pay $2 in ad revenue for the year of 2026. Ejaaz: OpenAI stands to make around $1.3 to $1.7 billion, which sounds like it's a lot. Ejaaz: But again, their spending budget is $20 billion. Ejaaz: So it doesn't really move the needle that much. And they're projecting by 2030 Ejaaz: to have made $15 per free user, which then pushes them up into the realm of $36 billion. Ejaaz: But you can imagine that their spending budget by then, Josh, Ejaaz: is going to be multiples of what they're spending this year. Ejaaz: So to kind of put into context, it's not looking great. But my argument against Ejaaz: that is I think AI is going to be the ultimate form of selling ads in the future. Ejaaz: Everyone is going to surface their intents, be it like, I want to buy something, Ejaaz: I want to explore something through some kind of AI chatbot. Ejaaz: And if OpenAI or ChatGPT rather becomes the face or the doormat of the internet, Ejaaz: then they can charge whatever they want per user. Ejaaz: And to kind of give listeners a context of like how much money you can actually Ejaaz: make, let's look at Meta, right? Ejaaz: In this tweet that I have up here, in 2025, Meta made $58 per user just purely from ads. Ejaaz: And if you want to look at like the behemoth that is Google, Ejaaz: they made $237 billion last year from ad revenue. Ejaaz: That makes up 77% of their entire profit. So there's a lot of money to make Ejaaz: from ads, but OpenAI needs to figure out a way to go from that $2 projection Ejaaz: to something where Meta's hitting like $60 or even Google at around $80 per user. Josh: Yeah, I think it's an interesting testament to, I guess, the human nature of Josh: how we think about sponsoring and advertising. I was very optimistic in the early days that, Josh: advertising that the traditional ad model, the freemium model, Josh: was going to go away in the advent of AI. Josh: And that was just some hopeful optimism. Didn't really have any reasoning why, Josh: but I think it's become clear that that will not be the case. Josh: And this push to monetize free users will continue to be this durable thing Josh: that continues into this next iteration of technology, mostly based on the fact Josh: that people would much prefer to pay with their attention than their dollars. Josh: And particularly when it's good information. Now, the question that I have as Josh: it relates to this story in particular is how much data are they going to be Josh: collecting and using in order to make these ads actually useful? Josh: Because one of the core principles that they shared is that your data is private, your data is being held. Josh: It's not influencing the ads that you see. But the reality is that ads can be Josh: a good thing if they are hyper-personalized. Josh: So where are they going to draw that line? Where are they going to take that Josh: line in the sand in order to give people higher value? Ejaaz: We actually have some information on that exact question that I'm showing on the screen here. Ejaaz: They state in their official post ads do Ejaaz: not change chat gpt answers so we know that the answer that you're Ejaaz: going to get isn't going to be influenced in any way specifically by an Ejaaz: advert and then it goes on to say your chats with chat gpt Ejaaz: are not shared with advertisers ads will be clearly labeled Ejaaz: and chats that include sensitive topics such as health mental health or politics Ejaaz: are not eligible for ads so they're taking a kind of hybrid approach here where Ejaaz: they're not explicitly sharing all the data or rather prompts that you're sharing Ejaaz: within your conversations but it's taking kind of themes from your conversations Ejaaz: and sharing them with advertisers saying, Ejaaz: hey, these are the general vibes that our users are speaking about ChatGPT with. Ejaaz: Maybe your product could be a well-suited fit for this. Ejaaz: Another interesting point to make here is, well, what do the ads actually look Ejaaz: like? Is it going to be something subtle where it says, Josh: This was shocking to me. Ejaaz: Right? Well, I actually like this. Josh: I like it though. No, well, shocking in not really the most optimal way. Josh: When you look at the amount of screen real estate this takes up for people who are listening. Josh: It's huge. About a third of the screen is an ad. Josh: That's a large percentage of screen real estate for a single advertising slot to go. Josh: It's probably going to be worth a pretty hefty premium and a very strong inconvenience Josh: to people who don't want to pay for ChatGPT. Josh: So this, in a way, does degrade the experience, but should also make them a good bit of money. Josh: Because man, if you're getting 25 to 30% on the screen for an impression, Josh: that's like a pretty, you're going to see it. Josh: Like there's no way your ad blockers, like your eyes are going to glaze over Josh: it and not notice because it is such a profound placement on the actual display. Ejaaz: Well, it's also not your average impression, right? Ejaaz: Because this is a kind of like boosted impression where the conversion rate Ejaaz: is or probability of it converting into someone purchasing your product or service Ejaaz: is probably way, way higher. Ejaaz: Now, to give OpenAI credit, I like that they're excluding things like health, Ejaaz: politics, and also people that are under the age of 18. Ejaaz: Because AI is very, very persuasive, both in a good way, but in a really, really bad way. Ejaaz: The other kind of lens that I apply to this is the competitors are going to eat this up, Josh. Ejaaz: Because, listen, Google is getting plenty of cash flow from all their other Ejaaz: businesses. So they do not need to turn on ads. Ejaaz: Today, if you are a freemium user of OpenAI and you get tired of this real estate Ejaaz: that you just referenced, the sponsored ads, you don't want to see that crap. Ejaaz: You can just go and use Gemini and there's no ads at all. Ejaaz: And let me tell you, Google will be willing to subsidize no ads for as long Ejaaz: as it takes to kill OpenAI. Ejaaz: Anthropic, on the other hand, isn't a gigantic monopoly, but they're already Ejaaz: making so much money from the people that want their Claude Code product. Ejaaz: They've already produced something so valuable, Josh, from their subscription Ejaaz: that they're making tons of money. They're projected to make $70 billion by 2028. Ejaaz: So they don't need to pull off the stunt for ads. Ejaaz: So OpenAI really seems like they've got their back against the wall There's Ejaaz: no other way for me to describe it, to be honest. Josh: Yeah, they're a small fish in a very, very big pond. I mean, Josh: they're competing with companies like Google that have an infinite balance sheet Josh: relative to theirs, and they have the ability to subsidize and absorb any additional Josh: cost required to win additional market share. Josh: And that's what we're seeing as we look at these charts of weekly active users, Josh: decline for ChatGPT, and increase for all the others across the board. Josh: While Anthropix sits cozy and soundly with their incredible coding model and Josh: their business-to-business service. Josh: Now, I think it's time to get back into the drama news. This is the gossip part Josh: of the show because we have some more. Ejaaz: Dude, I wish Sam versus Elon was the only catfight going on. Ejaaz: But do you remember that angel from OpenAI that couldn't do no wrong and actually Ejaaz: called Sam out for being moralistically unethical? Ejaaz: Miro Murati, who left and started her own company, her own AI lab called Thinking Labs. Josh: Thinking Machines. Ejaaz: Thinking Machines, rather. They just lost... Ejaaz: Total 50% of their founders or their founding team this week, Ejaaz: they lost their CTO, Barrett Zoff, due to, as this tweet says, Ejaaz: unethical conduct, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Ejaaz: Those two things that were unethical was an in-work relationship, Ejaaz: which he didn't disclose. Ejaaz: And also, apparently, he was leaking information to competitors. Josh: Yikes. Ejaaz: Josh, do you want to guess which competitor, if it was true, Josh: Who he might have been leaking that to? take a guess. Considering where they Josh: all came from, I'm going to guess they were returning back to OpenAI, Josh: which seems very clear to me. Ejaaz: Absolutely. Look at this tweet from Fiji Simo, the CEO of OpenAI Applications, Ejaaz: who at the same time Mira Murati announced that these guys were leaving, Ejaaz: she announced welcome Baratsoff, Luke Metz, and Sam Sheldon. Ejaaz: So basically, the three exact people that left Thinking Machines this week joined OpenAI. Ejaaz: So I have a feeling that they were already getting tired of their work. Ejaaz: They didn't really feel focused under Miro Moracci's leadership and decided Ejaaz: that the best place to go back was OpenAI and Fiji welcomed them back with open arms. Josh: Hey, I got a question for you, actually. What does the key machines do? Ejaaz: Dude, I have no idea. Josh: Two billion seed raise. I'm not sure anybody has an answer. Two billion dollar Josh: seed raise. I'm not sure anybody has an answer. Josh: This company, as far as I'm concerned, they have shipped one small product that Josh: I don't think, it was just kind of a research product, wasn't very impressive, and nothing else. Josh: But they've raised two billion dollars in their seed. They're looking to raise even more money. Josh: And there is clearly a lot of drama going on in-house. There's this funny, Josh: funny post, EJs. I actually dropped it in our agenda, if you don't mind opening it. Josh: It's titled Jim. and there is a post that Josh: someone saw looking into the offices and it has like these weights Josh: that are custom branded with thinking machines just as a testament Josh: to how kind of outrageous the spending is yeah this Josh: this photo it's so funny if you scroll down a little bit you could see the plates Josh: on the gym are thinking machines plates and ironically there's no 45s in this Josh: picture because i mean maybe ai researchers don't don't really trust me like Josh: they need to be who knows but i think it's a it's a funny testament to the fact Josh: that um there are bubbly things happening. Josh: And one of which seems like it's thinking machines. They've raised a ton of Josh: money. They haven't really come up with the product. Josh: There's clearly a lot of drama where half of the co-founders now have returned Josh: back to where they're left from. Josh: So clearly they're not liking it. And it seems like there's this lack of direction. Josh: And you can give them the benefit and the doubt in the case that they are a Josh: research lab and they're hoping to discover some novel algorithmic improvement. Josh: But we've discussed this in previous episodes where an algorithmic improvement Josh: is very difficult to capture value from because it very quickly becomes commoditized Josh: and democratize throughout the stack. Josh: So even in the best case scenario, it seems difficult to see thinking machines. Josh: Anywhere else besides either being acquired or just kind of fizzling out. Josh: And I mean, at this point, it wouldn't even surprise me to see OpenAI acquire them again. Josh: The mirror will come back to OpenAI. They'll get the remaining three co-founders Josh: and they'll just continue to move on as they were previously. Josh: But that is to be determined. Josh: In other AI news, perhaps we'll go off the drama and get back to the hard tech, Josh: the people who are actually building stuff, not talking about stuff. Josh: And that is XAI, who has just released the first, or has just made it to the Josh: first gigawatt scale coherent training cluster in the world. Josh: And they have not been around. They've been around the least amount of time Josh: out of any other company in the world. Josh: So it's pretty ironic the fact that the youngest company is now the first to Josh: reach this critical scale of one gigawatt worth of energy. Ejaaz: Yeah, this is a big deal. So Colossus 2 and Colossus 1 are XAI's specific data Ejaaz: centers that they use to gather all their GPUs and train their AI models and Ejaaz: inference their AI models. Ejaaz: And the unique part around Colossus specifically is Elon is an infrastructure scaling genius. Josh: When he started Colossus 1. Ejaaz: He scaled it to 400 megawatts of compute capacity in 122 days. Ejaaz: Do you know how long it should have taken him, technically? Josh: I mean, this is like a year, years-long project. Ejaaz: Dude, four years. A year to just set up the infrastructure, about four years to get at life. Ejaaz: He did all of that in 122 days. Jensen Huang called him something like short Ejaaz: of an absolute genius that no one can compete with. Josh: That's one-tenth the time. Ejaaz: Four months, right? Yeah. And so he did that kind of midway last year, Ejaaz: and he thought, you know what? Ejaaz: I'm going to put my foot on the gas even more. And he started with Colossus 2. Ejaaz: And by the start of this year, or rather not by the start of this year, Ejaaz: but January 17th specifically, he got one gigawatt of compute total live across Ejaaz: Colossus 1 and Colossus 2. Ejaaz: He is officially the quickest AI startup to get to one gigawatt's worth of compute, Ejaaz: beating OpenAI, who started this stuff years ago. This is a two-year startup. Josh: Oh my God, we got to show the chart. Please, go to the chart at the bottom. Ejaaz: Yeah, please, please, please, please. let me go to the let me go to this where Ejaaz: is the wait where is the chart oh it Josh: Was at the bottom of the post. Ejaaz: Oh yeah there you go sorry right look at this scale it Ejaaz: is just absolutely insane to kind of like put this into context for Ejaaz: people um we're talking about 555 000 gpus that's half a million gpus worth Ejaaz: 18 billion dollars he deployed it that quickly and if you want to understand Ejaaz: why he got the edge over every other lab that's been working on this for multiple Ejaaz: years and somehow elon's just kind of like swept the rug with them Ejaaz: He thought outside of the box. He played in the gray area. And what I mean by Ejaaz: that is, of course, he flew in gas turbines, Josh. Ejaaz: He flew in gas turbines to power his data centers. Ejaaz: If he couldn't get access to electrical grids, he would set it up himself. Ejaaz: He would literally thread the wires himself. Ejaaz: And if he couldn't get any energy from the national electric grid or the state Ejaaz: electric grid, he would fly in Tesla megapacks to power this. Ejaaz: He's thinking way outside the box where other AI labs are just kind of waiting Ejaaz: for regulatory burdens to be overcome. which is going to take years, to be honest. Josh: Yeah, and so much so that these two data centers, Colossus 1 and 2, Josh: actually sit in different states, but right on the state line. Josh: So they could lobby in two states at once. They have access to double the amount Josh: of senators to help get the legislation passed that they need in order to build these things. Josh: They have really, like, if you think about how to build a data center from first Josh: principles, you want to optimize all of these traits that they have actually been doing. Josh: And they have that unique advantage that you mentioned where they have partnerships Josh: with companies like Tesla to give them access to these mega packs. Josh: And a lot of people don't realize when you do these training runs, Josh: there's a couple hundred thousand GPUs that spin up very quickly and then power down. Josh: And there's a huge variance in energy that comes through the grid in order to Josh: make this work. And when there's a physical combustion motor that's actually Josh: spinning, it's very difficult to speed it up and slow it down that fast. Josh: So you need something quicker. You need things like Megapack batteries. Josh: And the only company that makes batteries this size at this scale with this Josh: type of software stack ready to go is Tesla, is the Megapack, Josh: and they have this competitive advantage. And in a world in which Josh: the winner is the person who can deploy resources the fastest and most efficiently, Josh: it very clearly seems that XAI is going to continue to take this lead as they Josh: move forward just because of the sheer rate of improvement. Josh: And if you look at the chart, I mean, it's a vertical line to get to Colossus 2. Josh: And the next person who's coming after this is OpenAI, but that chart looks Josh: like it's going to beat them sometime in 2027. Josh: So, I mean, granted, there will be variants here, but it seems like XAI finally Josh: has taken the lead, And I don't see any world in which they don't continue to dominate this lead. Ejaaz: Yeah, I agree with you. Elon's taking a very large gamble here, Ejaaz: which is the more compute I have, the better AI model I can build. Ejaaz: And that was in contention last year, but Google proved it after they spun up Ejaaz: a bunch of TPUs that they produced a leading model. Ejaaz: And I have a feeling that Grok 5, whenever that releases in this quarter or Ejaaz: first half of the year, is going to be an absolute beast. Josh: I can't wait. Ejaaz: I can't wait. To put it to context, by the way, because we throw around a lot Ejaaz: of these numbers, like one gigawatt, what the hell does that mean? Ejaaz: That is the total power that is needed to power San Francisco City, Ejaaz: but not just during normal hours. Ejaaz: I'm talking about peak hours. If you turn on all the lights, Ejaaz: use up all the energy, the most Ejaaz: energy, that's how much power is coursing through Colossus 2 right now. Ejaaz: And I've got news for you guys. he set up Colossus 3 already and he has raised Ejaaz: another $20 billion $5 billion oversubscribed to buy even more GPUs and he is Ejaaz: the largest purchaser of NVIDIA's Blackwells and their latest Vero Rubens as Ejaaz: well so again it's a big gamble if it pays off Ejaaz: Grok's going to be the best, dude. Josh: Man, when these Vera Rubin chips come online and they have clusters this size Josh: at this scale, there is an impossibility we don't reach AGI at that point. Josh: There is so much intelligence, so much energy and compute power solving problems. Josh: And this is happening quickly. I mean, this is by next year. We're done. Josh: So things are moving quickly. But maybe on that note, particularly the Tesla Josh: one, we have updates. It's not that... Ejaaz: Well, come on. We're talking about XAI. This is one company, Ejaaz: one of six that Elon manages. And you're telling me that he's had a banger week for Tesla as well. Josh: Absolutely incredible. So there's a funny thing. I'm in LA right now, Josh: and I've been taking Waymos around all week. And this obviously is Tesla's largest Josh: competitor. And they're fantastic. Josh: They work very well, but they work in this geofenced area where I wanted to go to Santa Monica Pier. Josh: And I actually couldn't get there, even though it was only four miles away, Josh: because it wasn't in the geofenced area. I wasn't able to get there. Josh: FSD is solving this problem. FSD is going to be fully autonomous everywhere. Josh: And in fact, just this week, they announced that they are removing the ability Josh: to purchase a license February 14th on Valentine's Day. Josh: Which is kind of sad because that's a heartbreak thing. And on Valentine's Day Josh: of all days, it's not a cool thing, but it signals a few things to me. Josh: One is since the beginning of time, it was made very clear that the price of Josh: full self-driving would only go in one direction and that's up because the value Josh: of having a license to basically grant you unlimited full self-driving miles Josh: for the remaining value of the car is a very high premium. Josh: And as they get closer and closer, that premium will get higher. Josh: Now we've gotten so close to the finish line that they've removed it entirely. Josh: And that license no longer exists. Josh: So if you want to buy unlimited lifetime full self-driving chauffeur miles, Josh: you have about a month to do it. Josh: And if you don't do it in that time, that's it, you're done for. Wait, question for you. Ejaaz: So let's say you buy a new Tesla after this deadline, Josh. Ejaaz: Can you move your lifetime FSD subscription to your new car? Josh: There is a month grace period after the window until sometime in mid-March, Josh: where if you are a current owner, you can transfer the license to the new vehicle Josh: but after that i suspect it's done and it's not coming back but. Ejaaz: Didn't people pay like eight thousand dollars Josh: To yes i owned the license so it's it's disappointing, Josh: But it's been expected for a very long time and the cars last forever. Josh: But now the car becomes much more valuable because it does have lifetime free Josh: full self-driving miles. Josh: And that amount of inference power is really impressive on the back of this Josh: post that we're sharing right now, which is the hardware plan as they move forward Josh: and as they're actually powering these systems. Josh: So AI4 is currently what's on the cars right now. Josh: That's what is driving full self-driving. that is what is going to get to full Josh: level five autonomy where the cars will drive themselves. But AI5 is coming next. Josh: And AI5 is a new chip design that they've been working really hard on basically Josh: every week for the last three months. Josh: And AI5 is built entirely for full self-driving in a way that AI4 was not. Josh: So traditionally with GPUs, the way they're built is for large, Josh: I think it's floating point matrix math, some like very elaborate data set. Josh: And it's good for general purpose. But basically what Tesla and the AI team Josh: are doing is designing, you could think of it like a TPU, but for full self-driving Josh: vehicles and for autonomy on machines. Josh: So that includes things like Optimus and things like any of the Tesla vehicles. Josh: And I'm sure it will find its way into the data centers. Josh: In fact, I was listening to an episode with one of the XAI employees who I guess is ex, Josh: XAI now because he's no longer with the company after that podcast. Josh: But he was mentioning how the plan is actually to take these AI5 chips and all Josh: the chips moving forward and actually place them into data centers because they're Josh: going to be so effective, Josh: so efficient relative to others that Tesla will now soon become not only a large Josh: chip manufacturer, but will do the Google thing and will vertically integrate Josh: the chips into its own technology stack as it trains these models and starts Josh: to build its quest for AGI. Ejaaz: He's already working on the future iterations of this chip as well. Ejaaz: AI-6, AI-7, and then Dojo 3. He's resuming that project as well. Ejaaz: He mentioned that he's going to be doing these iterations in nine-month cycles. Ejaaz: So what has typically taken two years, he's accelerating chip design to a new Ejaaz: one every nine months, which is just an insane cadence and kind of reminds me Ejaaz: of what Jensen is doing at NVIDIA, which brings me to, Ejaaz: because Jensen's like doing a new GPU model every year now. That's what he's targeting. Ejaaz: Which leads you to my point. We had a conversation, you and I, Ejaaz: Josh, months ago last year, where I said that I think Elon might be going down Ejaaz: the path where he's not exactly trying to compete with NVIDIA, Ejaaz: but he wants to become independent from them eventually. Ejaaz: I'm not saying this is a direct hit towards it. I think your comparison to the Ejaaz: AI models, the AI-5 chips, rather, being kind of better compared to Google's TPUs is accurate. Ejaaz: But if he's not just going to put these in cars, but he's going to put these Ejaaz: in humanoid robots and whatever robots Tesla builds in the future, Ejaaz: maybe even his spaceships, if they do a cross-collaboration, Ejaaz: we already know that there's a lot of synergies between SpaceX and Tesla. Ejaaz: This ends up becoming one of the most valuable GPU providers there could be. Ejaaz: And I wonder if Tesla starts to get valued similarly to an NVIDIA-esque for Ejaaz: maybe custom specialized chips for robots in the future. Josh: Yeah, their plan is to develop a TerraFab factory. Josh: So their plan is to actually make these chips in-house to become someone like Josh: NVIDIA, but do so in a way that's vertically integrated. Josh: And you can see in that post, he's kind of sharing what each one of those chips Josh: are going to be used for. And we could almost reverse engineer this to create Josh: a timeline of when we'll get to AI7, which he says will be the space-based AI compute. Josh: If you assume about nine months per iteration, that takes us to 27 months, Josh: so two years and change after AI5 releases. Josh: So maybe AI5 comes out sometime later this year. Josh: After that, we have about two years. So you're looking at like 2028, Josh: 2029, end of the decade for space-based AI compute to become really a superpower. Josh: And you have to assume that by that time, starships will be working very, Josh: very well. They'll get the cost of kilogram down. Josh: And that's probably when we'll start to see this new AI in space-based narrative Josh: actually literally taking off and getting into outer space. So I found that interesting too. Josh: So now we kind of have this loose estimate for timelines as well. Josh: And one final bonus on the full self-driving part of this show is the real live Josh: implementation of this right now, where we're seeing this post, Josh: this person drove 13,000 miles fully autonomously from the West Coast to the Josh: East Coast and then partially back. Josh: This was all done using a production Tesla. There was no early access information Josh: and it was actually verified through the software that's on the car, Josh: that 100% of these 13,000 miles were driven autonomously. Josh: That includes parking, that includes charging, that includes driving, Josh: detours, anything that needed to happen, it was done 100% autonomously. Josh: And I think that's why you're seeing this premium for these licenses. Josh: And the second they go away, you're on a monthly plan, and that monthly plan Josh: is going to change price. Josh: Right now it's $100 a month, but I suspect it will continue to go up as the cost per mile goes down. Josh: And that's basically it for the autopilot section. I mean, it's exciting. Josh: It's happening quickly it's out there in production you could go sit in them Josh: today and it really does work you have your own chauffeur. Ejaaz: To be honest, the most shocking thing from this news update, Ejaaz: Josh, is that you spent the week driving around in Waymo's, dude. You know what? Josh: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer, man. I got to know what's going on over there. Ejaaz: There's 2,500 of them out there right now, right? Josh: Oh, and it looks like it. It's unbelievable. Just a sidebar on LA. Josh: There are robots everywhere. Josh: There's robots rolling down the street delivering food. There's Waymo's that Josh: are driving in the streets. It feels like a futuristic place relative to New York City. Ejaaz: Did you make it out to the Tesla diner this time? Josh: Yes, and enjoyed every moment of it. In fact, I was there the week that it opened Josh: up because I'm such a fanboy. Josh: It's a cool experience. I would recommend anyone who is in LA go check it out Josh: because it's really fun. Josh: It is very good. It's all locally sourced. It's high quality ingredients. Josh: It tastes great. It's a really fun and novel experience. So it's worth making Josh: a pit stop if anyone's around. Ejaaz: Okay, well, if you guys are based in the West Coast or better yet in LA, Ejaaz: definitely go check out the diner or get a ride in a Waymo. Let us know. Is it safe? Ejaaz: Do you get into a car crash? I personally don't know. Josh: And share some pics. It's fun. You get an opportunity to actually sit in the Josh: future and live that before a lot of people do. Josh: So would highly advise. Now, final topic of the week here is a new partnership Josh: between OpenAI and Cerebris. Josh: I know, Ejaz, you're a Cerebris fan. Josh: You're a Cerebris guy. What's going on over here? Ejaaz: I'm more kind of concerned that OpenAI is spending money again, Ejaaz: despite them burning so much money. Josh: How much money are we talking? Ejaaz: $10 billion over the next three years. Just $10 billion. By the way, Ejaaz: they don't have that $10 billion. Lord knows what it is for. Josh: They don't have any dollars. They haven't made a profit yet. Ejaaz: They haven't made any profit, but with ads, of course. But yes, Ejaaz: this is OpenAI's latest and greatest partnership, or rather investment, Ejaaz: which is to the tune of $10 billion in this company called Cerebrus. Ejaaz: Now, when I read this headline, Josh, I had a flashback because I'd seen the name Cerebrus before. Ejaaz: And I remember I'd seen their name in the context of them moaning about another Ejaaz: investment, which was NVIDIA's $20 billion investment in a company called Grok, which makes custom, Ejaaz: let's call them custom GPUs, but they're not exactly GPUs. Josh: Grok with a Q. Grok with a Q, yeah. $20 billion acquisition that just happened. Ejaaz: $20 billion acquisition. Josh: $20 billion acquisition. Ejaaz: Licensing acquisition, exactly. And NVIDIA made this acquisition so that they Ejaaz: would get access to Grok with the queues Ejaaz: LSUs, they're language-specific units or whatever the hell it stands for. Ejaaz: And basically, it allows them to process inference at a much cheaper rate. Ejaaz: And the reason why that's interesting is, okay, trading the model is all well Ejaaz: and done and you need GPUs to do that. Ejaaz: But afterwards, you have a ton of people like Josh and I just sending prompts every single hour. Ejaaz: And it requires a different type of chip that you can make more performant, Ejaaz: save you more money, and also make you more money, right? Ejaaz: If you can lower the cost of inference, you end up making money on the back Ejaaz: end, right? That's what we all want. Ejaaz: And so opening, I thought, hmm, I don't have a Grok. Ejaaz: What's the next best company to invest in? And that was Cerebrus. Ejaaz: Cerebrus, at the time of the NVIDIA acquisition, complained, Ejaaz: saying, Grok's not good enough, our chips are better, basically, Ejaaz: because they wanted this kind of salty that they didn't get the investment. Ejaaz: Now they're getting it from OpenAI, Josh. Ejaaz: And so why would OpenAI do it at this time? Well, they received a big bit of Ejaaz: criticism for one of their products, Josh, and that is their coding model called Codex. Ejaaz: They were told that it was too slow and Cloud Code not only was smarter, but a lot quicker. Ejaaz: Well, Josh, a bit of news dropped in the last week, which actually you and I Ejaaz: didn't even catch. We caught it at the last minute. um Ejaaz: OpenAI dropped Codex Max High. Ejaaz: God knows why they called it that, but it's their latest coding model, Ejaaz: which is a lot smarter than it was. Ejaaz: It's almost at parity with Cloud Code, but not quite as good. Ejaaz: But most importantly, it's quicker. Ejaaz: And the rumors state that the Ejaaz: reason why it's 15 times quicker is because they're using Cerebrus chips. Ejaaz: So they have this specific custom chip. It's huge. I've seen a picture of this Ejaaz: thing. It's the size of a dinner plate. Ejaaz: It looks absolutely ridiculous, but it's more performant and will allow OpenAI Ejaaz: to charge more on the backend whilst also delivering enough compute for anyone Ejaaz: and everyone that wants to use it for coding. Josh: Yeah, it's a 10 times faster than GPU-based inference performance boost. Josh: So this is going to be a huge increase in performance. Josh: Now they have the performance. Do they have the actual intelligence? Josh: That's the next question that remains to be seen. So is it going to be valuable Josh: if it's faster, even though the tokens that it's generating are a bit inferior to Anthropic? Josh: I don't know. But again, this is kind of a testament to the strategy of open Josh: AI, which is being fighting basically every war on all fronts. Josh: They're trying to win consumer. Josh: They're trying to win institutional and business. Josh: They're trying to compete on coding while also doing image generation, Josh: while also doing video generation. Josh: So they're trying to be the best across the board. And it seems like as a result, Josh: they're becoming kind of... Josh: Not the best at anything. And I'm not sure where that strategy leads, Josh: but it appears as if they're going to continue doing that based on their ad Josh: strategy and now this acquisition of Cerebra. Josh: So time will tell how this actually pans out. Do you want to hear. Ejaaz: My tinfoil hat Josh: Conspiracy, Josh? Ejaaz: I also read earlier this week, Josh, what is the Neuralink competitor that Sam soldered? Ejaaz: Is it Merge Labs or something like that? It's Merge, right? Josh: I think that's probably right. Yeah, I know he has a competitor. Ejaaz: Guess which AI lab made a massive investment in Merge Labs this week as well? Who? OpenAI. Josh: No. So he's just buying his own bags across the board. It's kind of annoying. Ejaaz: It's annoying, right? Because he also secretly has equity in this thing. Josh: Is he using investor money as exit liquidity? Yes, that's exactly what he's doing. Ejaaz: Yeah, it's sus, right? Josh: On the back of a $135 billion lawsuit, I think this is probably going to be Josh: a big trend for the year, is just evaluating the... Josh: Ethics and strategy of OpenAI as they have gone from non-profit to for-profit Josh: and now continue to acquire the same companies that are on the CEO's balance sheet. Josh: It's interesting. There's a lot of good lore here that we still have to unpack. Josh: But I think that's enough unpacking for today. We covered quite a bit. Josh: That's going to be the end of the episode. We have another roundup coming later Josh: this week. There's so much stuff to talk about. Josh: But yeah, that was another. Ejaaz: Well, I was going to say, you might have noticed if you're listening to this, Ejaaz: that we didn't mention two of the hottest topics this week. Ejaaz: Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork and Google taking over the entire AI world Ejaaz: with four product releases, including personal intelligence. Ejaaz: We actually made dedicated episodes to both of those. And if you don't know Ejaaz: what we're talking about, you missed it. And you should definitely go and watch those. Ejaaz: In fact, Josh wrote a banger of a newsletter essay in our newsletter. Ejaaz: So you should sign up for that as well. Ejaaz: Turn on notifications wherever you listen or watch these things. Ejaaz: I know some of you can't bear to look at our faces, so you just listen to our voices. Ejaaz: That's totally fine. Turn on notifications, subscribe. It helps us out so much. Ejaaz: And yeah, we'll see you on the next episode. We're filming a pretty interesting one. Josh: Can we link a little bit of alpha here? Yes, please. For anyone who subscribes Josh: to the newsletter, the piece that's coming out this week, EJES, Josh: I believe, is going to be on XAI and about why XAI is undervalued, Josh: how valuable it can get, kind of a continuation of the conversation we had today. Josh: So if that seems interesting, that's going to drop on Wednesday of this week. Josh: So subscribe in order to get access to that and see a little bit more detail Josh: as to why we suspect XAI is going to have the success that we believe it will Josh: be, which will be very, very high. Josh: But yeah, that concludes the episode. Thank you all so much for watching. We appreciate it. Josh: Appreciate you sharing with your friends, doing all the good things. Josh: And we will see you guys in the next one. Ejaaz: See ya.

진행자 Josh: 돈이 얽히면 이별이 얼마나 지저분해지는지 다들 아시죠.
진행자 Josh: 그런데 그 이별이 테크 업계에서 가장 강력한 두 사람 사이에서 벌어진다고 상상해 보세요.
진행자 Josh: 걸린 돈은 $134 billion이고, 누군가의 개인 일기장이 법정 증거가 되어버렸습니다.
진행자 Josh: 이건 Elon 대 OpenAI, 갈수록 더 격화되는 사가(saga)예요.

진행자 Josh: 아주 짧게 요약하면, Elon은 2015년에 OpenAI를 공동 설립했고, $38 million을 기부(donation)했습니다.
진행자 Josh: 거대 기술 기업들의 AI 독점을 막고 인류를 구한다는 취지의 비영리(nonprofit)를 만든다고 생각했던 거죠. 특히 Google 같은 곳 말이죠.
진행자 Josh: 그런데 지금은 어떻습니까. OpenAI는 $500 billion 가치로 평가받고, Microsoft와 파트너십을 맺었고, 상장(IPO) 직전이라고 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 Elon은 “내가 당했다(I got played)”고 주장하고 있죠.

진행자 Josh: ‘영수증(증거)’이 공개됐습니다.
진행자 Josh: OpenAI의 president인 Greg Brockman이 2017년 일기(journal entries)를 남겨뒀는데, 이걸 두고 본격적으로 이야기해 보겠습니다.
진행자 Josh: 정말 흥미롭습니다.
진행자 Josh: Greg도 반박문을 올렸고요.

진행자 Josh: 드라마가 점점 통제 불능으로 가는 느낌입니다.
진행자 Josh: 이번 주에만 새로운 업데이트가 잔뜩 나왔고, 그걸 오늘 다 파헤쳐 볼게요.
진행자 Josh: 팝콘 챙기시고, 시작해 봅시다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 네, 오케이.
진행자 Ejaaz: 일단 두 사람 사이 드라마부터 들어가죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 참고로 Josh, 오늘 저는 ‘배트케이브(Batcave)’에서 중계합니다.
진행자 Josh: 거기 좀 어둡네요.
진행자 Josh: 여러분은 제가 이렇게…
진행자 Ejaaz: 네, 실루엣처럼 보일 겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh는 지금 서부(West Coast)고, 저는 동부(East Coast)라서요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 여기선 해가 졌습니다. 제 ‘일몰’이 이미 끝났어요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그럼 바로 들어가 보죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon은 살면서 많은 회사와 창업자들을 고소(sue)해 왔습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 그중 가장 좋아하고, 또 가장 “공들인” 소송은 OpenAI라고 할 수 있어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그들이 자신을 배신했다고 보는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그는 당시 비영리(non-profit)였던 OpenAI에 $38 million을 투자했다기보다 기부했습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: ‘AI를 오픈 소스 선(open source good)으로 만들고, 악의 손에 들어가지 않게 하겠다’는 목표였죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 지금은 OpenAI의 구조가 바뀌었습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 느슨하게 말하면, 사실상 영리(for-profit)로 분류할 수 있는 형태가 됐죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이 소송은 한동안 왔다 갔다 했는데, 최근 두 달 사이에 정점으로 치닫고 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 핵심 헤드라인만 말하면, 작년 말(2025년 말)에 판사가 Sam Altman의 ‘소송 각하(dismiss)’ 요청을 전부 받아들이지 않았습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: “Elon이 충분한 증거를 갖고 있다”고 했고, 결국 재판으로 간다고 했죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 재판은 올해(2026년) 4월에 열릴 예정입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 지난주에 Elon이 더 세게 나왔어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: “전부 다 가져가겠다(I’m coming for it all)”는 식입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 자신이 기부한 $38 million이 오늘날 OpenAI 가치에서 어느 정도냐, 그걸 다 요구하겠다는 거죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 그 금액이 얼마일 것 같아요?

진행자 Josh: 뭐… 천문학적 숫자겠죠.
진행자 Josh: 엄청 클 텐데요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 맞아요.
진행자 Ejaaz: $137 billion… 아니, 정확히는 $134 billion입니다. 제 실수.
진행자 Ejaaz: 즉, 목을 노리고 들어온 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 세부를 보면 이렇습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Musk 쪽 ‘전문가 변호사(expert lawyer)’가 있는데, 이름이 Paul Wazin이라고 하고요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 손해액(damages)을 $79 billion ~ $134 billion으로 평가합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 기준은 그 당시 $38 million 기부가 지금 가치에서 어느 정도냐는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그럼 질문은 “뭐가 바뀌었길래 Elon이 우위를 잡았냐”인데,
진행자 Ejaaz: 아까 Josh가 언급한 그 포인트입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Greg Brockman, OpenAI의 acting president.
진행자 Ejaaz: “야, 우리 네 일기장(diaria) 확보했어, bro.” 이런 상황이 된 거죠.

진행자 Josh: 와… 진짜 잔인하다.
진행자 Josh: 근데 Josh, 네 개인 일기장이 법정에 증거로 제출된다고 상상해 봐요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 형, 그리고 왜 그런 걸 쓰냐고요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 약간 16살 여학생 일기장 같아요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 제가 말하는 건, 그가 ‘그때 내가 하는 게 도덕적으로 맞는지’ 같은 것까지 한 줄 한 줄 적어놨다는 뜻입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 예를 들어 이런 인용문(quote) 보세요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 트윗에 이렇게 썼습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: “비영리를 그에게서 훔치는 건 잘못이다( it'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him).” 여기서 ‘그’는 Elon을 말합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: “그 없이 B Corp으로 전환하는 건 도덕적으로 파산한 짓이다(That'd be pretty morally bankrupt).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “그는 바보가 아니다(And he's not an idiot).”

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 이어서 이런 말도 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: “우리가 비영리에 헌신한다고 말할 수는 없다(I cannot say that we are committed to the nonprofit).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “3개월 뒤에 B Corp을 한다면, 그건 거짓말이 된다(Don't want to say that we're committed if three months later we're doing the b corp then it was a lie).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “이 모든 게 별로 기분 좋지 않다(not feeling so great about all of this).”

진행자 Ejaaz: “진짜 답은 우리가 Musk를 내보내고 싶다는 거다(the true answer is that we want musk out).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “아주 지저분한 싸움 없이 영리로 전환되는 건 상상하기 어렵다(can't see this turning into a for-profit without a very nasty fight).”
진행자 Ejaaz: 요약하면, Elon은 ‘내 $38 million 기부를 오늘날 OpenAI의 지분(equity stake)으로 환산해 달라’며 $134 billion을 공격적으로 청구하는 상황입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 Josh, 이건 거의 ‘스모킹 건(smoking gun)’에 가깝습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 다만 Greg Brockman 본인이 “Elon이 중요한 맥락을 빼고 주장했다”는 반박을 올렸죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 제가 화면에 띄운 이 내용 보시면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 여기서 파란색(blue)이 Elon이 인용한 부분이고, 빨간색(red)이 그가 빼고 말한 부분이라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon은 “나는 OpenAI가 자선적(philanthropic) 시도로 가야 한다는 생각을 늘 갖고 있었다”고 말했지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: 빨간색 부분에는 “B Corp이나 C Corp으로의 전환이 필요하다는 것도 알고 있다” 같은 내용이 있다는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그러니까 애매함(ambiguity)과 심리전(games)이 섞여 있다는 이야기입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 당신은 어느 편에 서겠어요?

진행자 Josh: 저는 최대한 중립(neutral)적으로 보려고 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 그런데 지금 나온 증거를 보면,
진행자 Josh: 첫째로 “어떻게 그 일기장/다이어리가 존재한다는 걸 알았는지”부터 궁금해요.
진행자 Josh: 보통 그런 건 엄청 개인적인 거라 남에게 말도 안 하잖아요.

진행자 Josh: 그러면 변호사들이 1) 그게 존재한다는 걸 어떻게 알아냈고,
진행자 Josh: 2) 어떻게 접근해서 확보했는지.
진행자 Josh: 이 사건 뒤에는 분명 웃긴(재밌는) 뒷이야기가 있을 겁니다.
진행자 Josh: 증거를 더 쌓기 위한 어떤 움직임이 있었겠죠.

진행자 Josh: 그럼에도, 현재까지 제출된 증거만 놓고 보면,
진행자 Josh: 한쪽은 “우리는 저 사람을 회사에 두고 싶지 않다, 그냥 제거하고 싶다”고 적어놨고,
진행자 Josh: 그래서 저는 일단 이 건에서는 Elon 쪽에 조금 더 기웁니다.

진행자 Josh: 설령 Elon이 “B Corp으로 가는 게 필요할 수도 있다”는 걸 알고 있었다 해도,
진행자 Josh: 그는 결국 축출(ousted)됐잖아요.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 정말로 B Corp이 되는 경우, 그는 그 지분을 ‘정당하게’ 가져야 한다는 주장도 성립하죠.

진행자 Josh: 그래서 지금은 ‘팀 Elon’입니다.
진행자 Josh: 하지만 그보다 더 확실한 건, 저는 ‘팀 드라마(team drama)’예요.
진행자 Josh: 이거 콘텐츠로는 끝내줍니다.

진행자 Josh: 4월 재판까지 따라가 보죠.
진행자 Josh: 이건 분명 빙산의 일각일 겁니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이번 주에 웃긴 트윗도 봤어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: “Anthropic이 AI 레이스에서 이길 거라는 내 논문(thesis)은, 걔네는 드라마가 0이라는 사실 하나뿐이다.”

진행자 Josh: 와, 진짜.

진행자 Ejaaz: 여섯 공동창업자가 아직 다 남아 있고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 아무도 떠나지 않았고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 메이저 AI 랩들 중 직원 이탈률(employee attrition)도 가장 낮다고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그냥 자기들 일 잘 하고 ‘정리’가 되어 있다는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 반면 OpenAI—아니, 이 에피소드에서는 OpenAIR라고 부르자면—정반대입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 완전 파괴구(wrecking ball)예요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 오늘 뒤에서 다른 얘기까지 나오면 더 그렇습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 이 포인트에서 마지막으로 하나 더.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAIR와 Microsoft 파트너십이요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon이 만약 $134 billion을 받아내면, Microsoft-OpenAI 관계가 통째로 붕괴할 수 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그 금액이 사실상 Microsoft의 OpenAI 지분과 동급이라고도 하니까요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그러면 Satya(사티아)는 ‘자기가 생각했던 만큼의 힘’을 가지지 못하게 됩니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Microsoft는 OpenAI 창립 때는 끼어 있지도 않았고 한참 뒤에 들어왔는데도, 그냥 같이 휘말리는 거죠.

진행자 Josh: 저는 이게 드라마를 넘어 중요한 이유가 있다고 봐요.
진행자 Josh: 만약 Elon이 이기면, AI 회사 가치평가(valuation) 방식 자체가 흔들릴 수 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: 이 재판이 ‘AI 버블’에 충격을 주는 촉매(catalyst)가 될 수 있다는 얘기가 슬슬 나옵니다.

진행자 Josh: $150 billion에 가까운 규모가 한 회사에서 빠져나가 다른 엔티티로 옮겨간다고 생각해 보세요.
진행자 Josh: 시장이 이걸 감당할 수 있을지 모르겠어요.
진행자 Josh: OpenAI는 벌어야 할 돈도 많고, 갚아야 할 의무(obligations)도 많고, 여기저기 돈을 줘야 하잖아요.

진행자 Josh: 그래서 그 맥락에서, 이번 주 OpenAI가 매출을 만들기 위해 내놓은 새 카드로 넘어가 보죠.
진행자 Josh: 바로 ‘새 광고 모델(ad model)’입니다.

진행자 Josh: Ijaz, 기억하실지 모르겠는데,
진행자 Josh: 작년… 아니 정확히는 2026년이니까 ‘2년 전’이죠. 2024년에 Sam이 무대에서 이렇게 말했어요.
진행자 Josh: “광고(ads)는 최후의 수단(last resort)이다. 우리는 광고 모델을 좋아하지 않는다. 필요 없다.”

진행자 Josh: 그런데 지금은요.
진행자 Josh: OpenAI에 광고가 들어오고 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: 발표문을 읽어볼게요.

진행자 Josh: “앞으로 몇 주 안에( in the coming weeks ), ChatGPT의 Free와 Go 티어에서 광고를 테스트할 계획입니다.”
진행자 Josh: “우리는 사용자의 신뢰(trust)와 투명성(transparency)을 최우선으로 하며 광고 원칙을 공유합니다.”

진행자 Josh: 그리고 4가지 원칙(principles)을 적어놨습니다.
진행자 Josh: 가장 중요한 것.
진행자 Josh: 1) ChatGPT 답변은 광고에 의해 영향을 받지 않는다.
진행자 Josh: 2) 광고는 항상 분리되고 명확히 표시된다.
진행자 Josh: 3) 대화(conversations)는 광고주로부터 프라이빗하게 유지된다.
진행자 Josh: 4) Pro/Plus/Business/Enterprise 티어는 광고가 없다.

진행자 Josh: 이거에 대해 어떻게 생각해요?

진행자 Ejaaz: 생각이 많죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 일단 판을 깔아드릴게요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 현재 OpenAI는 주간 활성 사용자(weekly active users)가 대략 800 million이라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 그중 몇 퍼센트나 구독료를 낼까요?

진행자 Josh: 우리 지난 에피소드에서 얘기해서 알아요.
진행자 Josh: 한 자릿수(single-digit) 근처였죠. 생각보다 엄청 낮았어요.

진행자 Ejaaz: **5%**입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 높지 않죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 여기서 우리가 얻은 교훈은 이겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 구독(subscription)만으로는 버틸 수가 없어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI는 올해만 $20 billion을 태울(burn/blow) 거라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그러니 무료 사용자를 다른 방식으로 수익화(monotize)해야 하죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 수십 년간 검증된 모델이 광고입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 두 티어에 광고를 켭니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 하나는 Free, 즉 돈을 안 내는 사용자.
진행자 Ejaaz: 다른 하나는 이번 발표와 동시에 나온 새 티어, ChatGPT Go.

진행자 Ejaaz: Go는 월 $8을 내고, 최고 모델은 아니지만 ‘최고 바로 아래’ 모델에 접근하는 구독이라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 자, 냅킨 매스(napkin math)를 해보죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 비구독 사용자가 대략 600 million(주간/월간을 섞어 말하지만 요지는 ‘대규모 비과금’)이라고 치면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 2026년에 1인당 광고 매출이 연 $2만 나와도,
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI는 대략 $1.3 ~ $1.7 billion을 벌 수 있습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 숫자만 보면 커 보이죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 지출이 $20 billion이면, 사실 ‘판을 뒤집는 수준’은 아닙니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그들은 2030년에는 무료 사용자 1인당 $15를 벌겠다고 전망(projection)한다고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그러면 매출이 $36 billion 영역으로 들어가죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 하지만 그때의 지출 규모도 올해보다 몇 배가 될 가능성이 크죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 지금 맥락에서는 “좋아 보이진 않는다”는 겁니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 다만 제 반론(counter)은 이거예요.
진행자 Ejaaz: AI는 미래에 ‘광고 판매의 궁극 형태(ultimate form of selling ads)’가 될 거라는 겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 사람들은 “뭘 사고 싶다, 뭘 탐색하고 싶다” 같은 의도(intents)를 AI 챗봇을 통해 노출하게 될 테니까요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 만약 ChatGPT가 인터넷의 ‘얼굴(face)’ 혹은 ‘현관매트(doormat)’가 되면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 사용자당 과금(광고 단가)을 마음대로 올릴 수 있죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 규모감을 주자면, Meta를 보세요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 2025년에 Meta는 광고만으로 사용자 1인당 $58을 벌었다고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 거대 괴물인 Google.
진행자 Ejaaz: 작년에 광고 매출이 $237 billion이고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 이게 전체 이익의 **77%**를 차지했다고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 돈은 엄청 납니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI가 해야 할 일은, 그 $2 전망치를 Meta의 $60 수준이나 Google의 ‘대략 $80’ 수준으로 끌어올리는 방법을 찾는 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 흥미로운 증거(testament) 같아요.
진행자 Josh: 저는 AI가 나오면 전통적인 광고 모델, 프리미엄(freemium) 모델이 사라질 줄 알았거든요.
진행자 Josh: 근거 있는 건 아니고, 그냥 희망적 낙관이었습니다.

진행자 Josh: 그런데 이제 보니 그건 아니었네요.
진행자 Josh: 무료 사용자를 수익화하려는 압력은 다음 기술 시대에도 계속 갈 겁니다.
진행자 Josh: 사람은 돈 대신 ‘관심(attention)’으로 지불하는 걸 더 좋아하니까요.

진행자 Josh: 특히 정보가 좋아 보이면 더 그렇죠.
진행자 Josh: 그래서 이 사안에서 제가 궁금한 건,
진행자 Josh: 광고를 ‘유용하게’ 만들기 위해 얼마나 많은 데이터를 수집하고 활용할 거냐는 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 그들이 말한 원칙은 “데이터는 프라이빗이고, 답변에도 영향을 주지 않는다”지만,
진행자 Josh: 현실적으로 광고는 ‘초개인화(hyper-personalized)’일 때 좋은 법이잖아요.
진행자 Josh: 그 선(line)을 어디에 그을까요?

진행자 Ejaaz: 그 질문에 대한 정보가 실제로 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 제가 화면에 띄운 공식 글에 이렇게 되어 있어요.

진행자 Ejaaz: “광고는 ChatGPT의 답변을 바꾸지 않는다(ads do not change chat gpt answers).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “ChatGPT와의 대화는 광고주와 공유되지 않는다(your chats … are not shared with advertisers).”
진행자 Ejaaz: “광고는 명확히 표시된다(ads will be clearly labeled).”

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 “건강, 정신건강, 정치 같은 민감한 주제(sensitive topics)는 광고 대상이 아니다(are not eligible for ads)”라고도 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 여기서는 ‘하이브리드 접근’입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 프롬프트 자체를 광고주에게 넘기지는 않지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: 대화에서 나오는 ‘테마(theme)’나 ‘분위기(vibes)’ 같은 걸로
진행자 Ejaaz: “우리 사용자는 이런 이야기를 한다, 이런 제품이 맞을 수 있다” 정도를 전달한다는 뉘앙스죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 또 하나 흥미로운 건 “광고가 생긴다면, 도대체 어떻게 보이느냐”입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: ‘미묘하게(slight)’ 들어갈까요?

진행자 Josh: 솔직히 저는 놀랐어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: (저는) 오히려 이거 마음에 들기도 하는데요.

진행자 Josh: 아니, 놀란 건 “최적”인 방식이 아니라는 의미에서요.
진행자 Josh: 화면에서 차지하는 면적(screen real estate)이 너무 큽니다.

진행자 Josh: 청취자 분들 기준으로 말하면,
진행자 Josh: 화면의 약 3분의 1이 광고예요.
진행자 Josh: 광고 슬롯 하나가 화면의 25~30%를 먹는 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 이 정도면 굉장히 비싼 프리미엄(premium)을 받을 수 있고,
진행자 Josh: 돈 안 내고 쓰려는 사람들에겐 꽤 큰 불편(inconvenience)이 되겠죠.
진행자 Josh: 경험이 저하(degrade)되는 건 맞아요.

진행자 Josh: 대신 OpenAI는 돈을 꽤 벌 겁니다.
진행자 Josh: 25~30%를 먹는 광고면, “안 보일 수가” 없잖아요.
진행자 Josh: 애드블록이 아니라 ‘눈’이 못 지나칩니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 게다가 이건 평균적인 노출(impression)이 아닙니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 전환(conversion) 확률이 훨씬 높겠죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI를 칭찬할 포인트는,
진행자 Ejaaz: 건강/정치 같은 주제를 빼고, 18세 미만도 배제하는 겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: AI는 설득력이 엄청나니까요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 좋은 방향으로도, 나쁜 방향으로도요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 경쟁사들은 이걸 좋아할 겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Google은 다른 사업에서 현금흐름이 충분하니 광고를 켤 필요가 없습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 만약 당신이 OpenAI 프리미엄 사용자(freemium)인데,
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh가 말한 그 광고 면적이 싫어지면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그냥 Gemini로 가면 됩니다. Gemini에는 광고가 전혀 없으니까요.

진행자 Ejaaz: Google은 OpenAI를 죽이기 위해서라면,
진행자 Ejaaz: ‘광고 없는 환경’을 얼마든지 오래 보조금(subsidize)으로 유지할 겁니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: Anthropic도요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 거긴 거대 독점은 아니지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: Claude Code가 워낙 가치가 커서 구독에서 이미 큰 돈을 벌고 있다고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 2028년까지 $70 billion을 벌 거라고 ‘전망된다(projected)’고도 하죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그러니 굳이 광고라는 스턴트(stunt)를 할 필요가 없습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 결국 OpenAI는 등이 벽에 붙은(back against the wall) 느낌이에요.

진행자 Josh: 맞아요.
진행자 Josh: OpenAI는 아주 큰 연못에서 작은 물고기(small fish)입니다.
진행자 Josh: Google 같은 곳은 OpenAI에 비해 ‘무한한(infinite)’ 수준의 대차대조표(balance sheet)가 있죠.

진행자 Josh: 비용을 흡수하면서 점유율을 가져갈 수 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 우리가 보고 있는 건 그런 경쟁의 결과예요.

진행자 Josh: 주간 활성 사용자(weekly active users) 차트를 보면,
진행자 Josh: ChatGPT는 내려가고, 나머지 경쟁자들은 전반적으로 올라가죠.
진행자 Josh: Anthropic은 강력한 코딩 모델과 B2B 서비스로 안정적으로 버티고 있고요.

진행자 Josh: 자, 다시 드라마로 돌아가죠.
진행자 Josh: 오늘의 ‘가십’ 파트입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 진짜, Sam 대 Elon만 있는 게 아니에요.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI에서 ‘천사’처럼 보였고, Sam을 도덕적으로 문제 있다고 공개적으로 비판했던 사람이 있잖아요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Mira Murati.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그녀는 회사를 떠나서 자기 AI 랩을 만들었습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 이름은 Thinking Labs라고…
진행자 Josh: Thinking Machines.
진행자 Ejaaz: 맞아요, Thinking Machines.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 이번 주에 그 회사 창립 멤버의 **50%**가 날아갔습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: CTO Barrett Zoff가 “비윤리적 행위(unethical conduct)”로 떠났다고 하는데,
진행자 Ejaaz: 두 명의 소식통(two sources familiar with the matter)에 따르면 이유는 두 가지래요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 첫째, 직장 내 관계(in-work relationship)가 있었는데 공개하지 않았고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 둘째, 경쟁사에게 정보를 유출(leaking information)했다는 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 와…

진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 그게 사실이라면 어디에 흘렸을까요?
진행자 Josh: 다들 어디서 왔는지 생각하면… OpenAI로 돌아간 거 아닐까요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 맞습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI Applications의 CEO인 Fiji Simo의 트윗을 보면,
진행자 Ejaaz: Mira Murati가 “그들이 떠난다”고 발표한 그 타이밍에,
진행자 Ejaaz: Fiji는 이렇게 올려요.

진행자 Ejaaz: “환영한다(welcome) Barrett Zoff, Luke Metz, Sam Sheldon.”
진행자 Ejaaz: 즉, 이번 주 Thinking Machines를 떠난 그 정확한 세 사람이 OpenAI로 합류했다는 이야기죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 저는 그들이 이미 회사 내부에서 지쳤고,
진행자 Ejaaz: Mira의 리더십 아래에서 집중이 안 된다고 느꼈고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 결국 ‘원래 있던 곳’이 최선이라고 판단해 돌아간 게 아닐까 싶습니다.

진행자 Josh: 근데 질문 하나.
진행자 Josh: Thinking Machines는 대체 뭘 하나요?

진행자 Ejaaz: 형, 저도 모르겠어요.

진행자 Josh: $2 billion 시드(seed) 라운드.
진행자 Josh: 아무도 답이 없는 것 같은데요.

진행자 Josh: 제 기준으로 이 회사는 작은 연구용 제품 하나를 낸 게 전부고, 별로 인상적이지 않았습니다.
진행자 Josh: 근데 시드로 $2 billion을 모았고, 더 모으려 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 내부 드라마도 있고요.

진행자 Josh: Ejaaz, 우리가 아젠다에 올려둔 ‘짐(gym)’ पोस्ट 있잖아요. 열어볼래요?
진행자 Josh: 건물 안을 들여다봤더니 Thinking Machines 로고가 박힌 웨이트(plates)가 있더라는 사진이에요.

진행자 Josh: 이게 지출이 얼마나 ‘과하다’는 걸 보여주는 웃긴 증거죠.
진행자 Josh: 스크롤 좀 내려보면, 원판에 Thinking Machines 로고가 박혀 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 웃긴 건, 사진에 45파운드 원판(45s)이 없다는 거예요.
진행자 Josh: 뭐, AI 연구자들이…
진행자 Josh: (농담이지만) 어쨌든 버블(bubbly)한 일이 벌어지고 있다는 느낌입니다.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 저는 이 회사가 연구 랩이라는 점에서 ‘선의의 의심(benefit of the doubt)’을 줄 수도 있지만,
진행자 Josh: 우리가 예전에도 말했듯, 알고리즘적 개선(algorithmic improvement)은 가치를 포획하기 어렵습니다.
진행자 Josh: 금방 범용화(commoditized)되고, 스택 전체로 민주화(democratize)되니까요.

진행자 Josh: 그래서 최선의 시나리오에서도 Thinking Machines는 인수(acquired)되거나,
진행자 Josh: 그냥 흐지부지 사라질(fizzle out) 가능성이 커 보입니다.
진행자 Josh: 심지어 OpenAI가 다시 그들을 인수하는 그림도 놀랍지 않을 것 같아요.

진행자 Josh: Mira가 돌아오고, 남은 공동창업자까지 데려오고, 그냥 예전처럼 계속 가는 거죠.
진행자 Josh: 하지만 그건 지켜봐야 합니다.

진행자 Josh: 자, 이제 드라마 말고 ‘하드 테크(hard tech)’로 가죠.
진행자 Josh: 실제로 뭔가를 만들고 있는 사람들의 이야기.

진행자 Josh: xAI가 세계 최초로 1 gigawatt 규모의 ‘코히어런트(coherent) 트레이닝 클러스터’에 도달했다고 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 가장 짧은 시간 존재해온 회사가, 가장 먼저 그 규모에 도달했다는 건 꽤 아이러니하죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 큰 딜입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Colossus 1과 Colossus 2는 xAI의 데이터센터 이름이고,
진행자 Ejaaz: GPU를 모아 학습(train)하고 추론(inference)하는 데 씁니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: Colossus의 핵심은, Elon이 인프라 스케일링(infrastructure scaling) 천재라는 거예요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Colossus 1을 시작했을 때,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그는 컴퓨팅 용량을 400 megawatts까지 122 days 만에 올렸다고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 원래 기술적으로는 얼마나 걸려야 했을까요?
진행자 Josh: 이건 보통 1년, 아니 수년에 걸친 프로젝트죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 형, 4 years요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 인프라 세팅만 1년,
진행자 Ejaaz: 실제로 그 규모로 올리는 데는 대략 4년이 걸린다고요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 그는 122 days에 끝냈습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: Jensen Huang은 그를 “상대가 안 되는 수준의 천재” 비슷하게 불렀다고 하고요.
진행자 Josh: 시간으로 치면 10분의 1이네요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 4개월쯤이죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그는 작년 중반에 그렇게 한 뒤,
진행자 Ejaaz: “더 밟자(put my foot on the gas)”고 생각하고 Colossus 2를 시작했습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 올해 1월 17일(January 17th) 기준으로,
진행자 Ejaaz: Colossus 1+2 합쳐서 총 1 gigawatt 컴퓨팅이 라이브(live)로 올라왔다고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 공식적으로, 1 gigawatt에 가장 빨리 도달한 AI 스타트업이 된 거죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI는 훨씬 오래전부터 했는데도요.

진행자 Josh: 미쳤다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 차트 보여드리면 이해가 쉬워요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 여기 스케일이 진짜 말이 안 됩니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 555,000 GPUs—반백만 GPU입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 가치로 $18 billion이라 하고요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 왜 그가 다른 랩보다 앞서 갔냐.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그는 ‘상자 밖에서 생각’했고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 회색지대(gray area)에서 움직였습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 예를 들어 전력을 못 구하면 어떻게 했냐.
진행자 Ejaaz: 가스 터빈(gas turbines)을 비행기로 실어왔습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 전력망(grid)에 못 붙이면 자기가 만들어 붙였다는 거죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 전선을 직접 깔고(thread the wires himself),
진행자 Ejaaz: 주(州) 전력망에서도 못 받으면 Tesla Megapack을 날려와서 데이터센터를 돌렸다는 이야기입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 다른 AI 랩들은 규제(regulatory burdens)가 풀리길 기다리는데,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그건 몇 년이 걸리니까요.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 재밌는 디테일이 하나 더 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: Colossus 1과 2는 서로 다른 주(state)에 있지만, 주 경계선(state line) 바로 위에 있다고 해요.

진행자 Josh: 그러면 두 주에서 동시에 로비(lobby)할 수 있죠.
진행자 Josh: 상원의원(senators) 접근도 두 배로 늘고,
진행자 Josh: 필요한 법안(legislation)을 통과시키는 데 유리합니다.

진행자 Josh: 데이터센터를 ‘1원리(first principles)’로 설계한다고 생각하면,
진행자 Josh: 그들이 지금 하는 선택들이 실제로 많은 요소를 최적화하고 있어요.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 Tesla Megapack 같은 파트너십이 있는 것도 큰 장점입니다.
진행자 Josh: 대규모 학습은 GPU 수십만 개가 순식간에 켜졌다가 꺼지면서 전력 변동(variance)이 심하거든요.

진행자 Josh: 물리적인 연소 엔진(physical combustion motor)은 그렇게 빨리 가속/감속이 어렵습니다.
진행자 Josh: 그래서 더 빠른 것이 필요해요.
진행자 Josh: Megapack 같은 대형 배터리가요.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 이 규모의 배터리와 소프트웨어 스택을 함께 제공할 수 있는 회사가 Tesla뿐이라는 말도 나옵니다.
진행자 Josh: 결국 “가장 빨리, 가장 효율적으로 자원을 배치하는 사람이 이긴다”는 세계에서,
진행자 Josh: xAI가 계속 앞서갈 것처럼 보입니다.

진행자 Josh: 차트에서도 Colossus 2로 가는 선이 거의 수직(vertical line)이고,
진행자 Josh: 그다음 추격자가 OpenAI인데, 그들이 따라잡는 건 2027년쯤으로 보인다고 하죠.

진행자 Josh: 물론 변수가 있겠지만,
진행자 Josh: xAI가 리드를 잡았고, 이 리드를 계속 지배하지 못할 세계가 잘 상상이 안 됩니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 동의합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon은 “컴퓨트가 많을수록 더 좋은 모델을 만든다”는 큰 도박을 하고 있어요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 작년까진 이게 논쟁거리였지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: Google이 TPUs를 잔뜩 돌려서 선도 모델(leading model)을 만들면서 어느 정도 입증했다는 논리도 나옵니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 저는 Grok 5가—이번 분기나 상반기에 나오면—엄청난 괴물(beast)이 될 거라고 봅니다.
진행자 Josh: 저도 기대돼요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 저도요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 참고로 “1 gigawatt가 도대체 뭐냐” 감이 안 오실 수 있는데,
진행자 Ejaaz: 샌프란시스코(San Francisco) 도시 전체를 ‘피크 시간(peak hours)’에 돌리는 전력과 비슷하다는 설명을 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 불 다 켜고, 에너지 최대치로 쓸 때 그 정도라는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 뉴스 더 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그는 Colossus 3도 이미 세팅했고,
진행자 Ejaaz: GPU를 더 사려고 $20 billion을 더 조달했고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그중 $5 billion은 초과청약(oversubscribed)됐다고 말합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 또 그는 NVIDIA의 Blackwell을 가장 많이 사는 구매자(largest purchaser)이고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 최신 “Vero Rubens”도 그렇다고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 큰 도박이지만, 성공하면 Grok이 최고가 된다는 주장입니다.

진행자 Josh: Vera Rubin 칩이 들어오고, 이런 규모의 클러스터가 돌아가기 시작하면,
진행자 Josh: 그 시점에는 AGI에 도달하지 않을 수가 없다는 식의 이야기도 나옵니다.
진행자 Josh: 그만큼 에너지와 컴퓨트가 ‘문제를 푸는 데’ 쏟아지니까요.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 이게 빠르게 진행되고 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: “내년이면 끝났다(we're done)”는 식으로요.

진행자 Josh: 자, 그 흐름에서 Tesla 얘기도 잠깐 하죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: xAI 얘기 중이었는데요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon이 관리하는 회사가 여섯 개인데,
진행자 Ejaaz: Tesla도 이번 주 ‘대박 주간(banger week)’이었다고요?

진행자 Josh: 엄청났습니다.
진행자 Josh: 저는 지금 LA에 있고, 이번 주 내내 Waymo를 타고 다녔어요.
진행자 Josh: 이게 Tesla의 가장 큰 경쟁자죠.

진행자 Josh: Waymo는 정말 잘 됩니다.
진행자 Josh: 근데 지오펜스(geofenced) 구역 안에서만 움직여요.
진행자 Josh: 저는 산타모니카 피어(Santa Monica Pier)로 가고 싶었는데,
진행자 Josh: 4마일밖에 안 되는 거리였는데도 구역 밖이라 못 갔습니다.

진행자 Josh: FSD(Full Self-Driving)는 이 문제를 푸는 방향이죠.
진행자 Josh: 어디서든 완전 자율주행(fully autonomous everywhere)을 하겠다는 거니까.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 이번 주에 발표가 하나 있었어요.
진행자 Josh: February 14th—발렌타인데이(Valentine's Day)에,
진행자 Josh: FSD ‘라이선스 구매(purchase a license)’ 옵션을 없앤다고 했습니다.

진행자 Josh: 좀 슬픈 날짜이긴 한데, 제게는 시그널이 몇 가지 있어요.
진행자 Josh: 첫째, 역사적으로 “FSD 가격은 오직 한 방향, 즉 상승만 한다”고 계속 말해왔죠.

진행자 Josh: 평생(lifetime) 무제한 FSD 마일을 주는 라이선스는 프리미엄이 큽니다.
진행자 Josh: 완성에 가까워질수록 그 가치는 더 커지고요.

진행자 Josh: 그런데 이제 ‘너무 가까워져서’ 아예 옵션을 없애버린 거죠.
진행자 Josh: 그 라이선스는 더 이상 존재하지 않습니다.

진행자 Josh: 그래서 평생 무제한 FSD ‘운전기사(chauffeur) 마일’을 사고 싶다면,
진행자 Josh: 한 달 정도의 창(window)이 남았다는 이야기예요.
진행자 Josh: 그 안에 못 사면 끝입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 질문.
진행자 Ejaaz: 이 데드라인 이후에 새 Tesla를 사면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 내가 가진 평생 FSD를 새 차로 옮길 수 있나요?

진행자 Josh: 현재 오너라면, 그 창이 닫힌 뒤에도 ‘한 달 정도’ 유예(grace period)가 있어서,
진행자 Josh: 3월 중순(mid-March)쯤까지는 새 차로 이전(transfer)할 수 있다고 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 다만 그 이후엔 끝일 가능성이 크고, 다시 돌아오지 않을 것 같아요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 사람들 $8,000 같은 돈을 내고 샀잖아요.

진행자 Josh: 맞아요. 실망스럽긴 하지만,
진행자 Josh: 오래전부터 예상된 일이기도 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 차는 오래 가니까요.

진행자 Josh: 오히려 이제 ‘평생 FSD’가 붙어 있는 차의 가치가 더 올라갈 겁니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 그 뒤에 있는 추론(inference) 파워도 인상적이죠.

진행자 Josh: 우리가 공유하는 이 포스트에는 하드웨어 로드맵(hardware plan)이 나옵니다.
진행자 Josh: 현재 차에는 AI4가 들어가 있고, 그게 FSD를 돌립니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 그게 레벨 5(level five) 완전 자율주행으로 가는 길이라는 얘기죠.

진행자 Josh: 다음은 AI5입니다.
진행자 Josh: AI5는 최근 3개월 동안 거의 매주 밀어붙여 개발 중인 새 칩이고,
진행자 Josh: AI4와 달리 ‘완전히 FSD에 최적화된’ 설계라고 합니다.

진행자 Josh: 전통적인 GPU는 큰 규모의—그가 말하길—부동소수점 행렬 연산(matrix math) 같은 범용을 위해 설계되죠.
진행자 Josh: 하지만 Tesla AI 팀은 ‘FSD용 TPU’ 같은 걸 만드는 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 이 칩은 차량뿐 아니라 Optimus 같은 로봇에도 들어갈 수 있고,
진행자 Josh: 데이터센터로도 들어갈 수 있다고 합니다.

진행자 Josh: 저는 어떤 xAI 직원이 나온 팟캐스트를 들었는데,
진행자 Josh: 그 사람은 이제 xAI 직원이 아니라고 하더군요(그 팟캐스트 이후 퇴사했다고 말합니다).
진행자 Josh: 그가 말하길, AI5 같은 칩을 데이터센터에 넣을 계획이래요.

진행자 Josh: 효율이 너무 좋아서 Tesla가 큰 칩 제조사(chip manufacturer)가 되고,
진행자 Josh: Google처럼 수직통합(vertically integrate)해서,
진행자 Josh: 자기 스택에서 모델을 학습하고 AGI를 추구하게 된다는 시나리오죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: Elon은 다음 세대도 이미 하고 있어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: AI-6, AI-7, 그리고 Dojo 3.
진행자 Ejaaz: 이 프로젝트도 다시 추진한다는 말이 나옵니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 그는 칩 이터레이션(iterations)을 9개월 사이클로 하겠다고 했습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 원래 2년 걸리던 걸 9개월마다 하나씩 뽑겠다는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이 속도는 Jensen이 NVIDIA에서 매년 새 GPU를 내겠다는 것과도 닮았고요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 제 포인트는 이겁니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 작년에 Josh랑 얘기했었죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: Elon이 NVIDIA와 정면승부한다기보다, 장기적으로는 NVIDIA 의존에서 독립하려는 길을 갈 수 있다고.

진행자 Ejaaz: AI-5 칩이 Google TPU에 더 가깝다는 Josh의 비교는 맞다고 봐요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 근데 그걸 차뿐 아니라 휴머노이드 로봇, 미래 로봇들, 심지어 우주선(spaceships)까지 넣는다면,
진행자 Ejaaz: SpaceX와 Tesla 시너지가 이미 많잖아요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그러면 엄청 가치 있는 ‘GPU 공급자’가 될 수도 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: Tesla가 로봇용 특화 칩(custom specialized chips)로 NVIDIA 비슷한 밸류에이션을 받게 될지 궁금해요.

진행자 Josh: 그들의 계획은 TerraFab factory를 만드는 겁니다.
진행자 Josh: 칩을 사내(in-house)에서 만들면서,
진행자 Josh: NVIDIA 같은 존재가 되되, 수직통합된 방식으로 가겠다는 거죠.

진행자 Josh: 그 포스트에 각 칩이 어디에 쓰이는지가 나와 있고,
진행자 Josh: 이를 바탕으로 타임라인도 역산(reverse engineer)할 수 있습니다.

진행자 Josh: 예를 들어 AI7이 ‘우주 기반 AI 컴퓨트(space-based AI compute)’라고 했으니,
진행자 Josh: 9개월 사이클을 가정하면 AI5 출시 후 27개월쯤, 즉 2년 조금 넘어서 도달하겠죠.

진행자 Josh: 그러면 AI5가 올해 하반기쯤 나오고,
진행자 Josh: 그로부터 2년이면 2028~2029, 즉 10년대 말에 우주 기반 컴퓨트가 ‘슈퍼파워’가 되는 그림이 됩니다.

진행자 Josh: 그때까지 Starship이 잘 돌아가고,
진행자 Josh: kg당 비용(cost of kilogram)도 내려가면,
진행자 Josh: 이 ‘우주 AI’ 내러티브가 진짜로 발사(launch)될 수 있다는 거죠.

진행자 Josh: 그리고 FSD 쪽 보너스 뉴스 하나.
진행자 Josh: 어떤 사람이 실제로 13,000 miles를 완전 자율주행으로 횡단했습니다.
진행자 Josh: 서부에서 동부까지, 그리고 일부 되돌아오는 구간까지요.

진행자 Josh: 이건 프로덕션(production) Tesla로 했고,
진행자 Josh: 얼리 액세스(early access) 정보도 없었고,
진행자 Josh: 차에 깔린 소프트웨어로 “13,000 miles의 **100%**가 자율주행이었다”는 게 검증(verified)됐다고 합니다.

진행자 Josh: 주차(parking), 충전(charging), 우회(detours)까지 전부요.
진행자 Josh: 그래서 라이선스 프리미엄이 붙는다는 설명이고,
진행자 Josh: 라이선스가 사라지면 월 구독(monthly plan)으로 가겠죠.

진행자 Josh: 지금은 월 $100이라고 하지만,
진행자 Josh: 마일당 비용(cost per mile)이 내려가면 가격은 더 오를 거라고 봅니다.

진행자 Josh: 어쨌든 이 오토파일럿 섹션은 끝입니다.
진행자 Josh: 흥미롭고, 실제로 프로덕션에서 돌아가고 있고,
진행자 Josh: 오늘 당장 타면 ‘나만의 운전기사’를 둔 느낌이 난다는 이야기죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 근데 이 뉴스 중 제일 충격은,
진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 네가 Waymo를 타고 다녔다는 거야.

진행자 Josh: 친구는 가까이, 적은 더 가까이.
진행자 Josh: 저쪽이 뭘 하는지 알아야죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: LA에 2,500대나 있죠?

진행자 Josh: 그럴 만해요. 진짜 많습니다.
진행자 Josh: 그리고 LA는 로봇이 여기저기 있어요.
진행자 Josh: 음식 배달 로봇도 굴러다니고, Waymo도 돌아다니고요.
진행자 Josh: 뉴욕에 비하면 미래 도시에 온 느낌입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이번에 Tesla diner도 갔어?

진행자 Josh: 갔죠. 너무 좋았어요.
진행자 Josh: 오픈한 주에 바로 갔습니다. 제가 팬보이(fanboy)라서요.

진행자 Josh: 재미있고, 로컬 재료(locally sourced) 쓰고,
진행자 Josh: 재료 퀄리티도 좋고,
진행자 Josh: 맛도 좋고,
진행자 Josh: 되게 새로운 경험입니다.
진행자 Josh: LA 가면 들러볼 가치가 있어요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 서부나 특히 LA에 계신 분들은,
진행자 Ejaaz: Tesla diner 가보시거나 Waymo 타보세요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 안전한지, 사고 나는지… 저는 모르겠네요.

진행자 Josh: 사진도 공유해 주세요.
진행자 Josh: 미래에 앉아볼 기회니까요.

진행자 Josh: 자, 이번 주 마지막 주제.
진행자 Josh: OpenAI와 Cerebris(라고 발음/표기되는) 간 새 파트너십입니다.
진행자 Josh: Ejaz, 당신은 Cerebris 팬이잖아요.
진행자 Josh: 무슨 일입니까?

진행자 Ejaaz: 저는 오히려 OpenAI가 또 돈을 쓴다는 게 걱정이에요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 이미 그렇게 돈을 태우고 있는데요.

진행자 Josh: 얼마를 쓰는데요?

진행자 Ejaaz: 앞으로 3년 동안 $10 billion.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그냥 $10 billion이요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 참고로 그들한테 그 돈이 없다는 말도 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: “뭘 위한 건지”는 모르겠지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI의 최신 파트너십/투자(investment)라고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이 헤드라인을 보고 저는 플래시백이 왔어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Cerebrus라는 이름을 어디서 봤거든요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 예전에 NVIDIA가 $20 billion에 ‘Grok’이라는 회사를 인수했다는 이야기에서요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Grok은 ‘Q가 들어가는’ 그 Grok이라고 말하고,
진행자 Josh: Grok with a Q. Grok with a Q.
진행자 Ejaaz: 맞아요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이건 $20 billion 규모의 인수였고,
진행자 Josh: $20 billion 인수.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 “라이선싱 인수(licensing acquisition)”라고도 표현합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: NVIDIA가 이걸 한 이유는, Grok의 LSU(Language-specific units인지 뭔지) 같은 걸 통해
진행자 Ejaaz: 추론(inference)을 훨씬 싸게 할 수 있기 때문이라는 설명입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 모델 학습(training)엔 GPU가 필요하지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: 그 뒤에는 Josh와 제가 매시간 프롬프트를 던지면서 발생하는 방대한 추론 비용이 있죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 더 효율적인, 더 특화된 칩이 필요하다는 논리입니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 추론 비용을 낮추면,
진행자 Ejaaz: 백엔드에서 돈을 벌 수 있습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: “우리 모두가 원하는 것”이라고 표현하죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그래서 OpenAI는 “난 Grok이 없네, 그럼 다음으로 좋은 회사가 어딜까” 하다가 Cerebrus로 갔다는 식입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 당시 Cerebrus는 “Grok보다 우리 칩이 낫다”면서 불만을 토로했다는 맥락도 언급하고요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이제 그들이 OpenAI로부터 $10 billion을 받는다는 이야기입니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 왜 지금일까요?

진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI가 Codex라는 코딩 모델(coding model)로 비판을 받았기 때문이라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 느리다는 지적이었고,
진행자 Ejaaz: Claude Code가 더 똑똑하고 더 빠르다는 평가였죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 지난주에 뉴스가 하나 더 나왔대요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 우리가 놓칠 뻔했는데,
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI가 Codex Max High라는 걸 내놨다고 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 이름은 왜 그렇게 지었는지 모르겠지만,
진행자 Ejaaz: 더 똑똑해졌고,
진행자 Ejaaz: Claude Code와 거의 비슷한 수준(parity)에 가깝지만, 아직 완전히 같진 않다고 말합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그리고 무엇보다 더 빠르다고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 루머에 따르면 15 times 더 빠른 이유가 Cerebrus 칩을 쓰기 때문이라는 거죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그 칩은 엄청 커서, “저녁 접시(dinner plate) 크기”라고 합니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 우스꽝스러워 보이지만, 더 성능이 좋고,
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI가 백엔드 과금(charge more)을 하면서도 코딩 수요를 감당할 수 있게 된다는 이야기입니다.

진행자 Josh: GPU 기반 추론보다 10 times 빠른 성능 향상(performance boost)이라고도 말하네요.
진행자 Josh: 그럼 속도는 확보입니다.

진행자 Josh: 그런데 ‘지능(intelligence)’은 확보했나요?
진행자 Josh: 더 빠르지만, 생성하는 토큰(tokens)이 Anthropic보다 떨어진다면 가치가 있을까요?
진행자 Josh: 모르겠습니다.

진행자 Josh: 다만 이건 OpenAI 전략의 단면입니다.
진행자 Josh: 소비자(consumer)도 잡고,
진행자 Josh: 기관/비즈니스(institutional/business)도 잡고,
진행자 Josh: 코딩도 이기고,
진행자 Josh: 이미지 생성도 하고,
진행자 Josh: 비디오 생성도 하고.

진행자 Josh: 전장을 전부 다 뛰는 전략이죠.
진행자 Josh: 그런데 그 결과,
진행자 Josh: “아무것도 최고가 아닌(not the best at anything)” 상태가 되어가는 것 같다는 평가를 합니다.
진행자 Josh: 어디로 갈지는 지켜봐야겠죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: Josh, 제 음모론(tinfoil hat) 하나 들어볼래요?

진행자 Ejaaz: Sam이 만든 Neuralink 경쟁사가 뭐였죠?
진행자 Ejaaz: Merge Labs 같은 건가요? Merge 맞죠?

진행자 Josh: 아마 맞을 거예요. 경쟁사가 있는 건 알아요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 그런데 이번 주, 그 Merge Labs에 ‘대규모 투자’를 한 AI 랩이 어딘지 맞혀보세요.
진행자 Ejaaz: OpenAI랍니다.

진행자 Josh: 아니…
진행자 Josh: 그럼 그는 전방위로 “자기 가방(bags)”을 사주는 셈이네요.

진행자 Ejaaz: 짜증나죠.
진행자 Ejaaz: 왜냐면 그도 그 회사 지분(equity)을 몰래 갖고 있을 수 있다는 뉘앙스니까.

진행자 Josh: 투자자 돈을 ‘엑싯 유동성(exit liquidity)’으로 쓰는 거냐는 의심이죠.

진행자 Ejaaz: 맞아요. 수상(sus)하죠.

진행자 Josh: $135 billion급 소송 얘기까지 깔려 있는 상황에서,
진행자 Josh: 올해의 큰 트렌드 중 하나가 OpenAI의 윤리(ethics)와 전략(strategy)을 평가하는 게 될 수도 있겠네요.

진행자 Josh: 비영리에서 영리로 전환했고,
진행자 Josh: 이제는 CEO의 개인 포트폴리오에 있을 법한 회사들을 계속 인수/투자하는 그림이니까요.

진행자 Josh: 오늘은 여기까지 하죠.
진행자 Josh: 다뤘던 게 꽤 많습니다.
진행자 Josh: 이번 에피소드는 여기서 마칠게요.

진행자 Josh: 이번 주 후반에 또 라운드업(roundup)이 있습니다.
진행자 Josh: 이야기할 게 너무 많아요.
진행자 Josh: 시청해주셔서 감사합니다.
진행자 Josh: 친구에게 공유도 해주시고,
진행자 Josh: 그리고 다음 에피소드에서 뵙겠습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: 참고로 여러분,
진행자 Ejaaz: 이번 주 가장 핫한 두 주제는 우리가 오늘 다루지 않았어요.
진행자 Ejaaz: Anthropic의 Claude Cowork 출시와,
진행자 Ejaaz: Google이 개인 지능(personal intelligence)을 포함해 4개 제품을 내놓은 것.

진행자 Ejaaz: 둘 다 별도 에피소드로 만들었습니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 못 봤다면 놓친 거고,
진행자 Ejaaz: 꼭 보셔야 합니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: Josh가 뉴스레터에 엄청 좋은 글도 썼으니 구독해 주세요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 알림 켜고, 구독도 부탁드립니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 얼굴 보기 싫어서 목소리만 듣는 분들도 괜찮아요.
진행자 Ejaaz: 어쨌든 알림 켜 주세요. 큰 도움이 됩니다.
진행자 Ejaaz: 다음 에피소드에서 봐요.

진행자 Josh: 마지막으로 ‘알파(alpha)’ 하나 풀어도 될까요?
진행자 Josh: 뉴스레터 구독자 분들을 위해, 이번 주 나오는 글은 xAI에 대한 내용일 겁니다.

진행자 Josh: 왜 xAI가 저평가(undervalued)됐는지,
진행자 Josh: 얼마나 가치가 커질 수 있는지,
진행자 Josh: 오늘 이야기의 연장선으로 더 디테일하게 쓸 예정이에요.

진행자 Josh: 이번 주 수요일(Wednesday)에 올라올 거라서,
진행자 Josh: 관심 있으면 구독해 주세요.

진행자 Josh: 오늘은 여기까지.
진행자 Josh: 시청해주셔서 감사합니다.
진행자 Josh: 다음 편에서 뵙겠습니다.

진행자 Ejaaz: See ya.

2026-01-20_Elon_vs_Sam_Altman_T…